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Has anyone ever found a +EV opportunity in online casinos?

Casinos Hate Winners

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I mean things like deposit or no-deposit bonuses, slot race exploits, comp-point loops, cashback or progressive jackpot plays.

Maybe someone took advantage of a promo offer, a tournament mechanic, or even managed to play a “broken” slot before it got patched — like the recent one in Romania.

Basically, anything where you believe you had — or could have had — a real mathematical edge.
 
It's a really good question, although it makes me think about someone scratching around in the dirt desperately trying to find a penny they dropped.

Ever since major consolidation started to take place in the mid 2010's my general impression of casinos and sportsbooks is that they have got so big and bloated that they no longer care what their customers think of them. Flutter Group is the best example - what on earth happened to Paddy Power and Betfair?

The newly formed mega gambling companies have been quite content on; closing winning betting accounts, nerfing RTP's on casino games, making customers jump through hoops to get their withdrawals processed.

It all points to an attitude or we don't care, we're too big to fail. And many of the smaller competitors have seen this behaviour and followed suit.

There was a time when a slot game malfunctioned or a new release would accidentally pay out too much and then casinos involved would pay out - fearing that customer backlash would affect business.

Not anymore. Heaven forbid you get a bit of fortune go your way, the likely response from the casino is to close your account and not respond to a single message you send or phone call you make. Most regulators will turn a blind eye, as long as they are all paid up on their licensing fees.

I really like your question, but I do predict that there will be a big old tumble weed rolling through this thread sadly.
 
There’s definitely another side to this model. All those major brands are so massive that they can afford to spend huge amounts on marketing — giving players extra opportunities like million-dollar slot tournaments on PokerStars.

In any case, I’m firmly convinced that it’s safer to play with large, established brands like Betsson Group, Entain, Flutter, and others, rather than with generic white-label clones.

But that wasn’t really the question.
 
technically at all british and no bonus casino you can get +EV position.

However, Im not going to explain how :)
 
Wouldn't all casino games, by nature have a -EV? For instance, isn't the<100% RTP on slots inherently -EV? Or a 35:1 payout on a 36 or 37 slot roulette wheel an indicator of negative EV?

I could see finding +EV opportunities in sports betting, but aren't casino games specifically setup to always be -EV?

Serious question... what am i not seeing?
 
Wouldn't all casino games, by nature have a -EV? For instance, isn't the<100% RTP on slots inherently -EV? Or a 35:1 payout on a 36 or 37 slot roulette wheel an indicator of negative EV?

I could see finding +EV opportunities in sports betting, but aren't casino games specifically setup to always be -EV?

Serious question... what am i not seeing?
In theory yes, but there are other factors involved.
 
Doesnt @ChopleyIOM have a video about something similar?
A massive bonus that took a weekend (or was it more?) of wagering on low volatile slots to complete.
I dont remember if it was a guaranteed win assuming he hit the trtp or if it was just a good chance of coming out on top.

Other than that all no-deposit bonuses do give you a real mathematical edge since there is no way to lose.
Usually pretty max cashout from those tho, and of course low odds to even get a win in the first place from a couple freespins.
 
Wouldn't all casino games, by nature have a -EV? For instance, isn't the<100% RTP on slots inherently -EV? Or a 35:1 payout on a 36 or 37 slot roulette wheel an indicator of negative EV?

I could see finding +EV opportunities in sports betting, but aren't casino games specifically setup to always be -EV?

Serious question... what am i not seeing?
They are, by nature, negative EV to play. When promotional bonuses come into play that's where the EV comes from. Cashbacks, Deposit Matches, Free Spins, Post-Wager rewards etc. Can all be +EV and in fact, usually are.

Unless the terms are dodgy and have a bunch of hidden gotchas (i.e. max redemption is initial bonus value), playing with promotions will usually create +EV opportunities for you. There is also optimal strategy when playing each and every bonus which I won't get into but playing the promotions the optimal way increases the EV even more.

These promotions are customer acquisition and retention investments because they are valuable and do cost the casinos money. This is why access to bonuses are often taken away when a casino figures out that they are giving away more than they are getting from someone.
 
Thanks @mulven. That makes sense since you are playing with money that isn't "yours". I wonder how the playthough requirements effect the +EV overall. Interesting question to be answered by someone better at math than I. :laugh:

This is why access to bonuses are often taken away when a casino figures out that they are giving away more than they are getting from someone.
I know this feeling all too well
 
There are things that are +EV but I doubt people will tell you if it's really printing. 99.9% of them will have EV so tiny that we're talking pennies and an absolute waste of time.

Up until recently you could enter the slots temple daily 1p as many times as you wanted. With 3000 max entries and £250 in the pool that meant they were juicing the prizes by £220 a day. So every entry you did would be worth an extra 7p or so in added EV. So if you entered 100 times a day you would be generating at least £7 of EV. If the tournament didn't cap out you'd be doing even better. That being said 100 entries on 30 spin challenges is 3000 spins, there's no turbo or auto option and you have to reset every 30 spins so actually doing 100 entries would take several hours so clearly not worthwhile but if you're desperate for the money... it was absolutely possble, until they limited entries to 25 :D
 
In short, yes. And im sure many others would agree.

Would we disclose them in a public forum, No.

Thats as far as this is going to go, I bet.

If you’ve created a bunch of accounts to claim no-deposit bonuses, or if you’ve found something that actually works right now and you’re afraid the loophole might get closed — then yeah, you probably shouldn’t post about it on a public forum.
 
So you’re suggesting offering a +EV opportunity on your site and then banning anyone who uses it?

With that approach you could sanction any player who used a deposit bonus — those are almost always +EV for the player.
L&L usually allow players to play with cash for a while to "earn the right" to get bonuses again. They are very quick to limit people who immediately have high bonus ratios or even just display certain tell tale behaviours on the first deposit. Not only that but they have various methods to identify these types of players prior to any deposit and limit them as soon as they sign-up just based on the information they provide. Email and phone particularly. As well as information of their environment (ip, fingerprint etc).

By being so on the ball with identifying non-recreational players, it helps them have more of a budget for promotions for their valued customers.
 
Please, say more! Any theories? I saw @Casinos Hate Winners message concerning no deposit bonuses etc but those don't give a mathematical advantage... right :confused: ?
It depends on the wagering requirements — these days they’re usually pretty bad.
But no-deposit bonuses can’t really be -EV by definition, since you don’t risk any of your own money.

Deposit bonuses are almost always +EV, as long as there’s no cap on winnings from the bonus. They’re just volatile — roughly speaking, you might lose nine times and win big on the tenth, covering all the previous losses.

I’ve written about this in detail before. Once, the three of us cleared 7,500 bonuses in six months. There was a promo with unlimited 25% deposit bonuses.

I don’t see any problem in talking about it — that offer doesn’t even exist anymore.
 
Wouldn't all casino games, by nature have a -EV? For instance, isn't the<100% RTP on slots inherently -EV? Or a 35:1 payout on a 36 or 37 slot roulette wheel an indicator of negative EV?

I could see finding +EV opportunities in sports betting, but aren't casino games specifically setup to always be -EV?

Serious question... what am i not seeing?
I missed your message earlier. I was talking about various loopholes that sometimes show up. Of course, casino games are designed to be -EV for the player, but sometimes certain offers let you work around that.

And technically, you can play only positive blackjack shoes — that way the game becomes +EV for the player. Or play progressive jackpots after the breakeven point — but that’s another story entirely.
 
Thanks @mulven. That makes sense since you are playing with money that isn't "yours". I wonder how the playthough requirements effect the +EV overall. Interesting question to be answered by someone better at math than I. :laugh:


I know this feeling all too well
There is a basic formula you can use for cash bonus post wager promotions such as videoslots.
ev = bonus - wagering x house edge,
For these types of promotions, they aren't very good but are better than playing with just your own cash. the viability of the playthrough requirements is directly linked to the RTP of the game you play as 96% slots would be break even at 25x wagering.

People often erroneously apply this formula to normal deposit matches which leads to a lot of misunderstandings about the actual value of deposit bonuses. Due to not actually finishing wagering every time (25% being the average probably on a pretty normal offer), the formula falls apart.

I've explained in detail in other posts but I won't bore anyone with that again. With that said, in short, for an accurate EV figure you need to do simulations. Volatility plays an important role whereas before it wasn't relevant.

As with post-wager, the playthrough requirement alone doesn't determine viability and is dependent on the other factors. You can have an offer with x100b wagering and still be viable if the max stake and RTP are high enough. I think x70b is usually the highest I would do with relatively normal terms. A good thing to remember is that if the rules of the bonus are high wagering, low max stake and capped winnings, that is not a bonus you want to play.
 
Doesnt @ChopleyIOM have a video about something similar?
A massive bonus that took a weekend (or was it more?) of wagering on low volatile slots to complete.
I dont remember if it was a guaranteed win assuming he hit the trtp or if it was just a good chance of coming out on top.

Other than that all no-deposit bonuses do give you a real mathematical edge since there is no way to lose.
Usually pretty max cashout from those tho, and of course low odds to even get a win in the first place from a couple freespins.
The idea there is to play with high volatility. I haven’t seen any videos about it, but I can share something to read. Not sure if links are allowed here, so message me privately if you want it.
 
people here exploited batman vs bane (microgaming) before it was fixed, the multiplier could be collected on min stake and then cashed in on max stake. The game no longer exists now.
 

Exactly right. The only thing is, even a 500× wagering requirement on the bonus amount still gives around a 24% ROI for a 100% up to $100 offer when playing at $5 spins in The Dog House. And that result actually improves with more volatile slots. Just think about it — a 500× wager and the bonus is still profitable.
 
people here exploited batman vs bane (microgaming) before it was fixed, the multiplier could be collected on min stake and then cashed in on max stake. The game no longer exists now.

This is one of the most common kinds of slot exploits — when a game lets you build up progress or features that carry over between bets. Street Fighter by NetEnt had a similar bug.
 
Exactly right. The only thing is, even a 500× wagering requirement on the bonus amount still gives around a 24% ROI for a 100% up to $100 offer when playing at $5 spins in The Dog House. And that result actually improves with more volatile slots. Just think about it — a 500× wager and the bonus is still profitable.
Isn't dog house only 98% at a couple of crypto sites and 96.55% or worse everywhere else? I get +21 for a 98% simulation and -20 for a 96.55 sim.
 
L&L usually allow players to play with cash for a while to "earn the right" to get bonuses again. They are very quick to limit people who immediately have high bonus ratios or even just display certain tell tale behaviours on the first deposit. Not only that but they have various methods to identify these types of players prior to any deposit and limit them as soon as they sign-up just based on the information they provide. Email and phone particularly. As well as information of their environment (ip, fingerprint etc).

By being so on the ball with identifying non-recreational players, it helps them have more of a budget for promotions for their valued customers.
Sorry we exist :)
 
So you’re suggesting offering a +EV opportunity on your site and then banning anyone who uses it?

With that approach you could sanction any player who used a deposit bonus — those are almost always +EV for the player.
yes, were a casino not a charity organization
 
Slightly off topic, as the bonuses are at land based adult entertainment centres, Admiral, playland etc. In Derby there are 5 of these clustered around 5/6 streets next to each other. They all offer almost daily 100% match offers of fivers and tenners.

These match offers have a 1x playthrough meaning you can literally go around politely signing upto these sms offers and hoovering up the profit.

I am now bonus banned from 3 of them and 1 of the remaining 2 has most of the offers in the dead of night so effectively I'm down to 1 place I can play at, Playland.

I know the manager, assistant manager and a couple members of staff by name, they are always happy to see me, give me mugs of coffee and I guess in their head the promotion is working because im in there 3-5 times a week, and that exactly what the match offers are supposed to do and it they lose £40 a week then so be it.

When I could play at all 5 i was making bank haha but only lasted about 4 weeks before 3 of them bonus banned me.

Get down your city centre arcades and sign up to the match offers! theres money to be had
 
I remember back in the early days of matched betting, before I got into doing any high risk casino play, I would get the same 1x wager offers from the local cashino so would pop in while doing the rounds of the bookies for all their in person offers.

These admirals and similar popping up on any free retail space and sucking the poor dry are a real scourge though 😭
 
Doesnt @ChopleyIOM have a video about something similar?
A massive bonus that took a weekend (or was it more?) of wagering on low volatile slots to complete.
I dont remember if it was a guaranteed win assuming he hit the trtp or if it was just a good chance of coming out on top.

Other than that all no-deposit bonuses do give you a real mathematical edge since there is no way to lose.
Usually pretty max cashout from those tho, and of course low odds to even get a win in the first place from a couple freespins.

It was a bit more complex than that, it needed a bit of a luck on a high volatility slot to start with, and then grind out the 65xD+B (!!!) WR on a low volatility slot that had a true skill bonus round and it was possible to get somewhere into the region of 98% RTP.

It was a crazily designed bonus because the 'player investment' required to have a go was pretty small compared to the potential reward. I go through it all in the video (linked below). In fairness to the casino (Tropicana) they did actually pay me, but they also nerfed the bonus into oblivion afterwards :D

On top of that they nerfed the slot with the true skill bonus round as well, just for good measure.

After that the bonus was essentially unbeatable.

Overall one of my better online slotting endeavours.

This was what the bonus looked like pre-nerf, it was VERY different after the nerf. Again, all covered in the video.

1760697074263.webp

1760697171189.webp


 

This one is a part of Casinomeister lore, like the bloke who got the 5-reel Sh!tstorm on Thunderstruck II.
 

Lol that nerf was scorched earth!

If you ever wondered the ev was around +110 or thereabouts, so more than the deposit and the bust out was 75% using a roughly similar strategy to yours at an estimates 98% low var for the vast majority of wagering
 
Lol that nerf was scorched earth!

If you ever wondered the ev was around +110 or thereabouts, so more than the deposit and the bust out was 75% using a roughly similar strategy to yours at an estimates 98% low var for the vast majority of wagering

The thing is you only needed to beat it once in every nine attempts and you'd still be in profit, so whilst I arguably got lucky beating it as early as it did, it was always a losing proposition for the casino if played right.

Conferring such a huge bonus to the player relative to their deposit, and having so few guardrails on eligible games and stakes, AND lobbing in an eligible game with a true skill bonus round that can be pushed to 98% RTP or more, is asking for trouble. (And on the original version of the bonus they gave you convertible comp points as well!)

Just so we're clear as I'm not great on the terminology, what does 'EV +110' mean in practical terms?
 
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The thing is you only needed to beat it once in every nine attempts and you'd still be in profit, so whilst I arguably got lucky beating it as early as it did, it was always a losing proposition for the casino if played right.

Conferring such a huge bonus to the player relative to their deposit, and having so few guardrails on eligible games and stakes, AND lobbing in an eligible game with a true skill bonus round that can be pushed to 98% RTP more, is asking for trouble. (And on the original version of the bonus they gave you convertible comp points as well!)

Just so we're clear as I'm not great on the terminology, what does 'EV +110' mean in practical terms?
Well to be honest I don't normally write it sans currency but it's just an expected value of £110, so the average cashout being £210.

Reminds me a little of the stake affiliate offer. The wagering scales with the RTP you play at so the optimal strategy ands up being 98% at large bets for like 100-200k wagering or something ridiculous.
 
Turns out I just need to RTFM :D

I kind of did my own version of that before embarking on the Tropica adventure, mainly I just banked on an early rise on a high volatility slot, and then grinding out at 98% on a low volatility, high RTP game as the numbers made sense on that.

Not as sophisticated but it did the job.

1760701093409.webp
 
Turns out I just need to RTFM :D

I kind of did my own version of that before embarking on the Tropica adventure, mainly I just banked on an early rise on a high volatility slot, and then grinding out at 98% on a low volatility, high RTP game as the numbers made sense on that.

Not as sophisticated but it did the job.

View attachment 212469
The classic two tier 😎

When you attached a pic of my post is it because of the formula mentioned? I'm a little confused since that post is specifically about how you can't use that formula for deposit matches.

I guess using the flawed formula after assuming a doubled balance (3744) would get you to a result of an above cap win so it makes sense that you worked out something as well that was congruent with that outcome.

I was accidentally running the Sims at 115,000 wagering instead of 122k so it's actually closer to £95 ev.
 
Isn't dog house only 98% at a couple of crypto sites and 96.55% or worse everywhere else? I get +21 for a 98% simulation and -20 for a 96.55 sim.
Something’s off with the simulation.
It should model a slot with a standard deviation of 13 and a bet size of 5.
The closest real-world analogy would be a single-number bet in roulette with 182 numbers and a 175:1 payout.
 
Something’s off with the simulation.
It should model a slot with a standard deviation of 13 and a bet size of 5.
The closest real-world analogy would be a single-number bet in roulette with 182 numbers and a 175:1 payout.
I never considered dog house to be THAT volatile tbh, but increasing stake or volatility (essentially the same) will get you to the 20s for EV for sure on a 5 stake on the regular RTP so you are right if that's really akin to dog house volatility.
 
I never considered dog house to be THAT volatile tbh, but increasing stake or volatility (essentially the same) will get you to the 20s for EV for sure on a 5 stake on the regular RTP so you are right if that's really akin to dog house volatility.
Everything is relative. It’s high compared to Starburst (σ ≈ 3), but low compared to Dead or Alive 2 – High Noon Saloon (σ ≈ 45) or most NoLimit City slots.

They even show the standard deviation of different games on their website. There should be a separate topic about volatility. I’m sure many people don’t really understand how it works
 

TBH I saw the whole thing more as an intellectual/maths style exercise than anything else. The cash was nice of course but I was more interested in taking on what on the surface appeared to be an unbeatable bonus, and beating it - with a defined plan.

The conversation around it is probably still on CM somewhere, the consensus of folks here at the time was very much that it was basically setting fire to £100 and should be seen as a 'playtime bonus' only, and I was like.... 'Erm, I think this is beatable....'
 
The conversation around it is probably still on CM somewhere, the consensus of folks here at the time was very much that it was basically setting fire to £100 and should be seen as a 'playtime bonus' only, and I was like.... 'Erm, I think this is beatable..
I once thought the same thing when 888 removed bonuses for poker players and left them only for the casino. The bonuses were so good — and there were so many of them — that it would take a full longread to describe it all.
 
No comments about which casinos but lately being a VIP have had constant 150 - 300% bonuses constantly plus wild rides of reversing cashouts and playing way above the bonus terms on those reversals and have won a lot more in the last year compared to the last few.

These are almost streamer (non free cash) term bonuses and it seems like the EV value has balanced all those bust sessions with big wins.

Could have been way more ahead if not for my greed but having my biggest win off 177k at 32red on Immortal Romance that is the target to beat especially because since then I have raised my bets when on a hot run to the point where I feel it has to hit soon.

But typically always play max bet allowed on bonus until clearing wagering and then if you want to get wreckless chasing glory try look for good bonus offers above 100% since that's why these streamers are able to do what they do without free fake money (the rare few).
 


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