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Brexit - whats the difference.....

Joined
May 23, 2015
Location
Belfast
Please can someone tell me what the difference is between a permanent customs union, which JC is telling Labour MP's to support, and remaining in the EU?
My limited knowledge tells me that if you are in the customs union you cant negotiate your own trade deals, you must have freedom of movement for people and goods, but you can't have a say in how the EU is run. Is this not a wee bit daft since 52% of the voters said they wanted to leave the EU? I know im not the brightest light in the room, but surely this is the worst possible scenario for leavers and remainers?
 
Reality has finally collided with fantasy when it comes to Brexit.

Any 'Deal' is worse than what we already have, for myriad reasons and varying by option, and 'No Deal' is a catastrophe.

This was where it was always going to end up once Theresa May had drawn her red lines, it's just taken us a while to get here.
 
Please can someone tell me what the difference is between a permanent customs union, which JC is telling Labour MP's to support, and remaining in the EU?
My limited knowledge tells me that if you are in the customs union you cant negotiate your own trade deals, you must have freedom of movement for people and goods, but you can't have a say in how the EU is run. Is this not a wee bit daft since 52% of the voters said they wanted to leave the EU? I know im not the brightest light in the room, but surely this is the worst possible scenario for leavers and remainers?
Customs union does not incorporate freedom of movement i believe.

Also any of the votes tonight are useless unless they pass the withdrawal agreement as the EU says we have to have a withdrawal agreement.

The purpose of a customs union is to make trade easier.

Countries in a customs union agree not to impose charges - known as tariffs - or custom checks on each other's goods.

The rules also mean that any goods coming in from the rest of the world pay the same tariff - irrespective of where in the customs union those goods first enter.

This is known as a common tariff.

For example, a car from the US entering the EU customs union currently attracts a tariff of 10% of the car's value. It doesn't matter if the car arrives in France, Spain or anywhere else - the same one-off 10% charge is applied.

That car can then move between all the customs union countries without incurring extra costs or custom checks.
 
because there won't be any EU left in 2-4 years.

You'll find people who have been saying that for 20 years or more..... It's more a wish than a likely reality.
 
My wish is for democracy.

Last time I checked all EU member states had national elections to their own parliaments, and also sent elected MEPs to the European parliament.

Kind of sounds like democracy to me.
 
Who elected Juncker and co? not the people who voted in the european elections that's for sure.

But the mechanism by which the President of the European Commission is decided has been well known and widely accepted for decades, I doubt that's what people were getting all cross about when they voted in the referendum.

Plus of course, we've had a UK President of the European Commission in Roy Jenkins, not long after we joined, so it's not like some sort of snobby EU club we're excluded from.

There's no good way to slice this, leaving the EU for the UK is simply variations of choosing what limb we wish to amputate. All options are bad.

Every Deal or in particular No Deal hurts us and leaves us weaker, the only sane option is revoking Article 50, or putting it back to the people in another referendum now we know what 'Deal' and 'No Deal' actually look like. SPOILER ALERT - They're both fucking horrible.
 
I'd read about how it's still possible to revoke Article 50 a while back, though it's legally muddled at best and I think even that 'deadline' has slipped by. Though who knows what's bloody going on anymore :eek2:

Though just imagine Theresa May addressing the nation live: "Look serfs, I was just messin' with y'all. We're staying in the EU. Lap it up, bitches" before exiting stage left doing that robot dance of hers
 

taken from the bbc website re IOM:

"The island is not part of the United Kingdom or European Union, but has the status of 'crown dependency', similar to Jersey and Guernsey, with an independent administration. Its inhabitants are British citizens."

So I wonder how the trade and free movement works in IOM's situation? What would happen if IOM became part of the EU???
 
taken from the bbc website re IOM:

"The island is not part of the United Kingdom or European Union, but has the status of 'crown dependency', similar to Jersey and Guernsey, with an independent administration. Its inhabitants are British citizens."

So I wonder how the trade and free movement works in IOM's situation? What would happen if IOM became part of the EU???

Specifically on a No Deal Brexit - our government has published an extensive public report on this, freely available to download and view. (Link below.)

TL : DR - Everything will get worse, except in the best case scenario where they might just about stay the same. Specifically to the IOM, the one benefit we might get is more tourists because it'll be too difficult and/or expensive to travel to Europe for UK residents.

Do note that our government has no 'skin in the game' as it were, so this is the most objective analysis you're likely to see as to what No Deal actually looks like for real people and businesses.

As for your question, it's kind of dealt with in the document, we have a lot of reciprocal agreements.

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Thanks Chopley, I see it is a bit complicated but I noted this:

So whilst the Isle of Man is covered by most EU rules relating to the free movement of goods, it is not covered by EU rules concerning free movement of people, services or investment. Out of the whole body of EU law, only a relatively small proportion of that law currently applies to the Island

So if you had a mini local referendum on the IOM joining the EU and adopting their rules/laws regarding people, services and investment, plus switching to the Euro, how would you vote?
[sorry just to add, and the brief reasons 'why' if no or if yes]
 
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This speech below from the german parliament which rees-mogg retweeted today is worth viewing for brexiteers and remainers alike. I understand her party, AFD, is described by the mainstream media as right wing or extremist but that seems to be the way to shut down any views different to the liberal elite's, she certainly doesn't seem hostile to us Brits in any case.

 
I fail to see how describing the AfD as right wing isn’t correct? Their policies are ultra conservative and populist, which by definition puts them on the right wing of the political spectrum. Mainstream media describing them as such isn’t simply the will of your so called “liberal elites” and just a reflection of their policies.

I agree that media organisations will align their stance according to whomever controls them, but to argue that it is just dog whistling to describe AfD as right/extreme right is incorrect.

Tldr; does what it says on the tin.
 
We've had all this once before from Cameron and Osbourne, straight after any Brexit vote, prices would shoot up, mass unemployment instantly and the devil will rise again, um now...unemployment at a 50 year low...

No deal? why would anyone want a deal with unelected drunk mugs like "Lord Junker" and the rest of his euro army wanting mob (let the scenes in Paris every weekend show you the eu future, public beaten to a pulp by the eu police)...we are not useless, we can run our own country, just need to get rid of this REMAIN goverment ruled by a REMAIN pm, who are voting on REMAIN subjects chosen by a REMAIN speaker.

Someone who had passion in brexit would have sorted this a long time ago and we would be fine.
 
The issue is we leave the EU in 10 days with no deal, parliament has rejected no deal as an option and thinks it can just get an extension (or rather the cowards in Parliament expect Theresa May to get an extension), the EU is so fed up with the UK's antics they could just tell us to sod off next week. Some Brexiteers have jumped ship to May's deal as they see it as the only way to get any Brexit.

In my view we should just leave and negotiate later we shouldn't have gone through all this nonsense we have over the last three years or we should have got a deal then changed it later.
 
And, er, prices HAVE shot up since the referendum.

Even in cases where prices appear largely static, look at the pack size of food items - loads of products have been reduced in size to keep the same price point.

The pound is worth f-all. The only time it rises is when something that looks like it’ll delay our exit from the EU happens.

You can’t undo forty years of integration in two years, and you’d be a liar to say you could.

You’d be insane to try and leave without a deal, and you’d been insane to leave at all.
 
Packages have been reducing in size for years nothing to do with the referendum, this was mainly to do with keeping the items in the pound shops and the supermarkets just bought the smaller items as well, a loaf of hovis is still £1 in Tesco the only product that has risen is milk which is now £1.10-£1.15 in most supermarkets and this is because of the row with farmers and general inflation.
 
Why do you want to stay with the mad EU and their club you can't leave? We are a country we should be able to leave this club without blackmail and threats of armageddon, why should 28 countries be told what to do by the EU and have courts rulings us?

We signed up to trade in a common market not to have this bunch with their EU courts and bizarre ideas telling us what to do.
 
Last time I checked all EU member states had national elections to their own parliaments, and also sent elected MEPs to the European parliament.

Kind of sounds like democracy to me.

A customs union basically keeps our trade arrangements and market access the same as if we were still in the EU.
We can be in it and not be under EU Court jurisdiction, not have to operate free movement, not have to allow access to our fishing stocks and not be in the CAP. It is what I believe we'll end up with, and will split both the Tory and LieBore parties if approved. As a leaver, it is the 'softest' Brexit I could take without vomiting. It does mean, as said, there are restrictions still on our trade arrangements with non-EU countries.

The 'Norway' or 'EU 2.0' will be a total disaster, one so bad we may as well stay in, as the one of the primary reasons for leaving (removal of uncontrolled migration) would not occur. I cannot see this passing, even LieBore have spoken out last night against it. That is more a SNP measure as Sturgeon thinks Scotland is underpopulated and wants to cram as many foreigners in there as possible.

Chopely has swallowed the 'we must be in it to change it' nonsense which was spouted by the remainers prior to the referendum. A European Parliament where we provide 1/10 of the MEP's is as useful as a chocolate bog roll and we have absolutely no power in it, even if every one of our MEPs voted together. Our own parliament has 100% decision-making power which is another primary reason people voted to get our sovereignty back, that previous traitorous governments have handed piece by piece to foreigners.

Ultimate proof that T. May has underplayed our hand is demonstrated by the fact that it's now becoming apparent the EU are dreading us going out on a 'no deal' basis and pretty much granting extension after extension, along with enjoying the discomfort the UK is experiencing, especially the French.

I wish now the EU would just get that horrid little weasel-faced **** to say to the UK 'Deal by April 12 or f*ck-off on WTO terms'. Then the board is wiped clean for the govts. of now and the future to decide upon our future relationship based on mandates from the voters. But they won't for the reasons above.

I can see serious civil disorder here IF we don't leave. Parliament being stormed and the MPs marched ceremonially by a pitchfork mob to the Tower. Refusal to pay taxes by the more peaceful protesters, starving the govt. of funds. No taxation without representation, innit?
 
It's already been proved we can't change it as the 28 have to agree to any change, we can't even agree to leave let alone hope to change the EU from within, this is why people voted leave because the EU does not want to change, it wants to be the world police and everyone to do as they say as they are right.

Incidentally can someone explain something I never understood, the EU claims it has kept peace on the continent for 70 years, the longest ever if this is true what was Yugoslavia all about in 1993 wasn't that a conflict in Europe?
 
Why do you want to stay with the mad EU and their club you can't leave? We are a country we should be able to leave this club without blackmail and threats of armageddon, why should 28 countries be told what to do by the EU and have courts rulings us?

We signed up to trade in a common market not to have this bunch with their EU courts and bizarre ideas telling us what to do.

The UK was and is at the top table. We set the rules. Jointly and severally. It benefits everyone.

As you will see when forty years-worth of treaties get suddenly torn up next week.
 
We hold no cards in any future relationship.

We’re a small island with no significant manufacturing economy. We’ve spent four decades transforming into a service economy dependent on our relationship with the EU.

The negotiations are evidence of how any future relationships worldwide will be. 27 nations have given as much leeway as they can, and the deals available are still massively poorer than remaining.

Parliament has always been sovereign. We’ve always been able to restrict free movement - our governments have chosen not to simply because it is massively beneficial.

If Brexit were a casino, it’d be registered in Curaçao. Sold with glitzy bonuses that lure the gullible, with no intention of paying out and the only people that get rich are those advertising the scam in the first place.
 
The UK was and is at the top table. We set the rules. Jointly and severally. It benefits everyone.

As you will see when forty years-worth of treaties get suddenly torn up next week.
Well they won't, will they? The EU laws have already been written into ours. Many of the agreements and treaties like Schengen we weren't signed up to anyway.

NATO is what has unified Europe's defence, not the EU. In fact the US is getting pissed-off at paying for a lot of the cost, because unlike the UK and Greece (believe it or not!) most of them won't spend the agreed 2% of GDP on defence.

The bottom line is, the remainers lost. In a democratic vote. Another referendum is kind of like asking for the FA Cup Final to be replayed because one team didn't achieve the 'right' result.
 
I fail to see how describing the AfD as right wing isn’t correct? Their policies are ultra conservative and populist, which by definition puts them on the right wing of the political spectrum. Mainstream media describing them as such isn’t simply the will of your so called “liberal elites” and just a reflection of their policies.

I agree that media organisations will align their stance according to whomever controls them, but to argue that it is just dog whistling to describe AfD as right/extreme right is incorrect.

Tldr; does what it says on the tin.

You've described their policies as 'ultra conservative' but if you went back 30 years they'd just be mainstream conservative. The liberal elite have been shifting the goal posts on the back of their political correctness project, and it seems anyone who opposes globalism [which includes a federal EU ] is labelled far right. I don't know much about their policies, I just thought she spoke a fair bit of sense in this video.

We've had our referendum and 17 million voted to leave, and I would estimate at least 40% of voters in every nation of the EU wants to leave, so that's got to be over a hundred million. I just don't see what's so good about the EU, not europe the countries, but this dictatorship with it's headquarters in brussels. According to politicians and pundits, like jeremy corbyn, the EU protects workers rights so it must have been asleep when zero hour contract jobs became widespread in the uk, you can't get something much worse for a worker than that, sheer exploitation IMO.
 
Well they won't, will they? The EU laws have already been written into ours. Many of the agreements and treaties like Schengen we weren't signed up to anyway.

NATO is what has unified Europe's defence, not the EU. In fact the US is getting pissed-off at paying for a lot of the cost, because unlike the UK and Greece (believe it or not!) most of them won't spend the agreed 2% of GDP on defence.

The bottom line is, the remainers lost. In a democratic vote. Another referendum is kind of like asking for the FA Cup Final to be replayed because one team didn't achieve the 'right' result.

Laws and treaties are not the same. With no deal, every aspect of our trade with the EU and the rest of the world is torn up.

No other developed nation trades solely on WTO terms, and with good reason.

No other nation in history has ever placed sanctions on itself.

Leave won with a corrupt campaign, which has been found to be illegal. Had it been a binding referendum, it would’ve been nullified. As it was advisory only, it hasn’t been.

We are fucked, and Labour and the Tories are complicit.
 

It's a politically binding referendum, which is why even the traitors in Labour won't fully support revoking Article 50 in those demonstrative votes. Too much of a hot potato. Instead they and their fellow deniers simply obstruct, delay and obfuscate the process. Imagine C*rbyn got his wish and there was a GE. UKIP would be there and everything would be split and fractionalized in Parliament, even more chaos than at present. The campaign run by leave wasn't 'illegal' aside from an overspending issue for which they were fined 61k last year for IIRC. Hardly grounds to project that 17.4m people were somehow convinced as a result.
 
What are people's main reasons for wanting to leave? The two I see and hear people saying more than anything are immigration, yet no member state is obliged to let people stay for longer than 3 months if they can't support themselves already, and non EU migration is a bigger problem than EU migration, so I don't see how leaving will fix immigration.
The second is laws, yet no one ever seems to know what laws we have implemented that are actually bad, and certainly there seem to be many more good laws than bad. Having seen some of the stuff the UK try to do, I think having someone watching over them is a good thing.
 
I think the stay campaign should have been condemned as illegal, govt propaganda for remaining posted through everybody's letterbox, wall to wall media bias for months on end, without the effect of this propaganda the margin for leaving would've been even greater. And the propaganda campaign has not let up, it's been ongoing from the very next day after the vote, it's a psychological war of attrition perpetrated on the british public by the establishment and elite of this country.
 
What are people's main reasons for wanting to leave? The two I see and hear people saying more than anything are immigration, yet no member state is obliged to let people stay for longer than 3 months if they can't support themselves already, and non EU migration is a bigger problem than EU migration, so I don't see how leaving will fix immigration.
The second is laws, yet no one ever seems to know what laws we have implemented that are actually bad, and certainly there seem to be many more good laws than bad. Having seen some of the stuff the UK try to do, I think having someone watching over them is a good thing.

back in the 90's I use to think more like this, comparing the shocking state the country was being run in to places like germany and france, I thought some of the good things they do in other countries may rub off here, but it's never happened. And now older and wiser I realise the basic principle of the EU structure is all wrong and undemocratic, unelected bureaucrats making laws for the whole of europe. You've got to think of the future, you might be one of the minority that see juncker and tusk et al as kind, fair men, but what are you going to do when someone even less 'benelovent' than them takes over?
 
No but an overspend of £675000, when the result was so close, could easily have been the difference between the stay/leave result being different.

did you watch tv and read newspapers at the time, the remain campaign was getting free propaganda day in and day out? If it had had to be sponsored you're talking hundreds of millions, this was a david vs goliath fight, with remain goliath.
 
No but an overspend of £675000, when the result was so close, could easily have been the difference between the stay/leave result being different.


This reminds me of two football fans arguing the toss after a match - "IF the ref had awarded a penalty then.."

No different to the lies spouted by remain, along the lines of security, defence and food as if we never had those things before 1973.
 
back in the 90's I use to think more like this, comparing the shocking state the country was being run in to places like germany and france, I thought some of the good things they do in other countries may rub off here, but it's never happened. And now older and wiser I realise the basic principle of the EU structure is all wrong and undemocratic, unelected bureaucrats making laws for the whole of europe. You've got to think of the future, you might be one of the minority that see juncker and tusk et al as kind, fair men, but what are you going to do when someone even less 'benelovent' than them takes over?

I think there are major problems with the EU, and don't agree with a lot of it, but then also think whats on the other side. 3 years after the vote, we still have no clue how to leave. How long will it take for us to do anything in the future? You would think after all the statements the leave campaign were making, there would be a plan in place to leave already in draft form.
 
Danofthewibble: The UK was and is at the top table.
We hold no cards in any future relationship.

We’re a small island with no significant manufacturing economy.

Make your mind up are we top of the table or a small island with no significance?

We are not a small island with no significance we are the fifth biggest economy in the world size has nothing to do with it if it did then we'd all be speaking Russian.

It's amazing how remainers think we are a insignificant and matter to no one else but still live here, there are 27 other countries if you want to be in the EU if you don't want to be in the EU then the UK is the place to be in 10 days time. Go down to b&m buy yourself a cheap suitcase and move to Ireland where you can be happy living with your dictator rulers.
 
I think there are major problems with the EU, and don't agree with a lot of it, but then also think whats on the other side. 3 years after the vote, we still have no clue how to leave. How long will it take for us to do anything in the future? You would think after all the statements the leave campaign were making, there would be a plan in place to leave already in draft form.

Yep. You'd think the EU would have had a constitutional menu of fixed options in place for countries wanting to leave, but they could never envisage people actually having the audacity of wanting to exit their gravy club once in it. Maybe they'll learn from this affair too, but I doubt it.
 
This reminds me of two football fans arguing the toss after a match - "IF the ref had awarded a penalty then.."

No different to the lies spouted by remain, along the lines of security, defence and food as if we never had those things before 1973.

And this was a true claim then?

gettyimages-533670386.jpg


Just one of many pure lies leave used to get votes.

Notice you didn't answer my question :)

There should never have been a referendum based on lies & speculation from both sides. If anything there should have been a pre-referendum then when the actual details were known, a full, legally binding one should have been held, if the decision had to be put to the public vote. However, as most people (me included) don't know or understand the full implication and full details of what leave actually entails, it should have been left to people to do actually understand the whole thing.
 
Yep. You'd think the EU would have had a constitutional menu of fixed options in place for countries wanting to leave, but they could never envisage people actually having the audacity of wanting to exit their gravy club once in it. Maybe they'll learn from this affair too, but I doubt it.

Yes I agree. But knowing they didn't, you would think our leaders would also have something in place :(
We must be the laughing stock of the world at the moment
 
Yep. You'd think the EU would have had a constitutional menu of fixed options in place for countries wanting to leave, but they could never envisage people actually having the audacity of wanting to exit their gravy club once in it. Maybe they'll learn from this affair too, but I doubt it.
Yes it wouldn't surprise me if they removed article 50 in the future, I am also quite surprised that the other 27 are totally silent I would have thought some of the more right wing countries like Austria or Italy would at least have an opinion there must be a reason the other 27 barely say anything apart from Merkel & Macron.

What is ironic here is if Scotland had left the UK, and boy I wish they had, they would have been in our position now trying to negotiate a border with England, trying to get into the EU without joining the Euro.

Oh how I wish they had voted to leave then the rest of the UK would be sat laughing at the Scots.

Incidentally I still don't get how Scotland wants independence then wants to sign up to a club it can never leave which will dictate it's laws and rules forever.
 
A good commentary from last night.

A lot of MPs looked exhausted & emotionally wrung out tonight. They're making hellishly difficult choices under a hail of emotional & physical abuse, while the doomsday clock ticks down to midnight. No one thinks clearly in these conditions. For all our sakes, we need a time out.

We are trying to cram into three days a debate that should have begun three years ago: exploring what the options might be, what trade-offs they involve and whether they command a majority. It hardly matters any longer who's to blame: this is an insane way to decide our future.

No one *wants* another year of this, but it's more important to do this well than to do it quickly. So let's extend for a year & use the summer - & the EP elections - for a serious ventilation of the options. Citizens Assemblies, town-hall meetings, seminars for MPs - the lot.

Let's do what we should have done in the first place & open up a serious public debate, which accepts that we're choosing from imperfect alternatives - all of which (including Remain) come with costs & trade-offs. Then let's try again, refreshed & better informed, in the Autumn.
 
I think there are major problems with the EU, and don't agree with a lot of it, but then also think whats on the other side. 3 years after the vote, we still have no clue how to leave. How long will it take for us to do anything in the future? You would think after all the statements the leave campaign were making, there would be a plan in place to leave already in draft form.

I agree the UK won't turn into some sort of well run paradise just because we leave the EU but at least we will have a democratic process where we have a say in how the country is run, what laws we want to see come in or be changed. Once they brought the euro in [which funnily enough our political class objected to, so we've always had one foot in and one out] you could see the writing on the wall for the sovereignty of the european nation states, people across europe have lost a major part of their democratic rights to decide how their lives are governed, there's no doubt about that.
 


Yes, and no. The £350m is correct, but what it didn't mention was the fact that it was not a net amount and that a proportion of it came back via dev grants etc. Typical politics with lies, damn lies and statistics.

That said, it did demonstrate the stupidity of us sending billions to foreigners of which they decide to redirect some back for certain expenditure in OUR country of THEIR choice. Insane. And therein lies the 'taking back control' aspect of the argument which is undeniable.
 


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